The odds are stacked against manual gearboxes. The rise of plug-in hybrids and EVs is gradually spelling the end for the third pedal. Advanced semi-autonomous driving systems and sophisticated safety features are primarily engineered to work with automatic transmissions. Plus, for the average driver, the added convenience of not shifting gears makes automatics even more appealing. Reducing complexity by offering fewer variants cuts costs for the automaker.

Nevertheless, BMW isn’t willing to say goodbye to the stick shift just yet. We recently asked the company whether it’s closing the door on manuals. Sylvia Neubauer, Vice President of Customer, Brand, and Sales at the M division, told us: “There’s nothing ever closed forever.” She explained that the ability to row your own gears in the United States is perceived as a “lifestyle statement.”

Even so, the ugly truth is that “the lion’s share of M cars are still automatic.” Her statement isn’t really a surprise. All M SUVs have two pedals, as do the M5 and M8. Even on the M2, M3, and M4, you must settle for the lower output if you want the 6MT. That wasn’t the case for the G87 until the 2025 model year brought a boost in torque for the Steptronic-equipped model.

Additionally, clients who prefer xDrive can’t combine it with a manual transmission. The all-wheel-drive M2 we believe is coming next year will be sold only with the eight-speed automatic. Thankfully, despite earlier reports saying otherwise, it won’t spell the end for the rear-wheel-drive, manual-gearbox model.

Although Sylvia told us BMW M isn’t giving up on the manual, she admitted its availability “depends on the concept. The manual transmission is not the proper solution for every segment.”

The jury is still out on whether the next-gen M3 G84 will have three pedals when it enters production in August 2028, although we wouldn’t hold our breath. Meanwhile, the current M2 will likely stick around until the decade’s end. We’ve heard the last one will be assembled in July 2029. Whether the manual survives until the very end is unknown.